Oil prices rise on Tightening Crude Supply

In June, Saudi Arabia stated that it would start reducing its daily oil output by 1 million barrels in July to help maintain the stability of the oil markets.

Although the nation claims it does not base oil production choices on crude cost, the move is widely considered an effort to support oil prices in response to the uncertainties surrounding the world economy and worries that global demand may decline.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is a group of 13 central oil-exporting countries globally. To coordinate its members’ petroleum policy and to offer partner governments financial and technical assistance, OPEC was established in 1960.

OPEC is a coalition that works to control oil supply and stabilize oil prices on the global market to prevent swings that might harm the economy of both oil-producing and consuming nations.

The 13 countries that make up OPEC are Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq, Iran, the United Arab Emirates, Nigeria, Libya, Gabon, Equatorial Guinea, Congo, Angola, and Algeria.

Roughly 40% of the world’s crude oil is produced by OPEC members. The extent of OPEC’s oil shipments on global oil prices is equal since they account for almost 60% of all oil traded worldwide. Today, Saudi Arabia accounts for roughly 13% of the world’s oil production. Behind the United States of America, they are the second largest oil producer in the world. So, when the second largest oil producer decides to reduce its oil production, prices have a tendency to rise.

How much oil is produced globally, and what was the percentage increase in production?

With the world’s economy expanding crude oil production, global oil production increased by a record 5.4% rate in 2022, significantly higher than its growth of 2021 (+1.6%) and its average growth rate from 2010 to 2019 (+1.3% yearly). In 2022, roughly 94 million barrels of oil were produced daily.

The most significant increase in global oil output came from the Middle East in 2022. The most considerable percentage increase came from Saudi Arabia at an increase of 16% followed by the United Arab Emirates at 15%, Kuwait at 8%, and Iran at 6%. In addition, North America also increased its oil output by 6.5% by the United States and 2.6% by Canada.

2022 was a massive year for oil output. The earth created, on average, roughly 80.76 million barrels of oil daily. This oil output puts the annual crude oil production output at approximately 29.75 billion barrels. With a daily output of 80.76 million barrels per day, this means that the market size exceeded $2 trillion at current costs.

Who is the largest producer of Oil in the world?

In 2022, the United States was the largest petroleum liquids producer in the world.  In addition, the United States was also the largest producer of crude oil and lease condensate.

In September 2018, the United States passed Russia and Saudi Arabia as the world’s largest global crude oil producer. Many believe that the United States will remain the largest producer of crude oil for the foreseeable future.

The accomplishment that the United States is the largest oil producer highlights the significant influence of drilling’s quick technological advancements. Huge subterranean reserves of oil and natural gas were released because of fracking. Costs for drilling have drastically decreased.

Fracking changed the game of oil extraction for the United States. The practice of fracking has allowed the United States to be a significant player in the oil industry.

Another significant development is the fact that America now has international oil clients. In 2015, Congress decided to end the 40-year crude oil export prohibition. Currently, oil from the United States is sent to South America, Europe, and China.

What is fracking, and how does it work?

Hydraulic fracturing, or fracking as it is typically known, is one insignificant part of the more extensive process of unconventional oil and natural gas exploitation.

Fracking is a drilling strategy for getting water, geothermal energy, oil, or natural gas out of the earth. Since 1947, fracking has been carried out safely in the United States. Fracking has been used to complete over one million seven hundred thousand United States wells, creating six trillion cubic feet of natural gas and more than seven billion barrels of oil.

In short, fracking is an American success story that has dramatically helped the country. Fracking has successfully opened America’s abundant natural resources, lowered energy costs, brought cleaner air by sharply reducing the United States’ greenhouse gas emissions to twenty-five-year lows, bolstered our national security, and made the U.S. a global energy superpower.

How has Saudi Arabia’s reduction in crude oil affected global oil prices?

In June, Saudi Arabia announced they would be cutting oil production starting July 1st.  The cuts announced by the Saudis were approximately a reduction of 9 million barrels per day from an output of 10 million barrels.

Once the Saudis cut production, the price of crude oil began to rise globally. At the end of July, crude oil prices hit a three-month high of roughly $83.64 a barrel.  If you were able to catch the move and you are involved in crude oil investing, you would have seen your position rise.

According to analysts the short-term prediction, the average price of a barrel of crude oil would rise by over 6% in the final quarter of 2023, from $88 in August to $93 in December. Since crude oil prices are the main factor influencing gasoline prices, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) predicted that production cuts will result in higher prices at the pump. Between now and the end of the year, the EIA anticipates a rise in per-gallon costs of 12 cents.

According to AAA, the current national average price of a regular gallon is $3.836, which was recorded in September. Even while it is less than the highest average ever recorded ($5.034 in June 2022), it has significantly increased from the average of $3.175 at the beginning of 2023.

The reduction in crude oil had the reverse effect on gasoline prices that many believed would occur. Instead of gasoline prices shooting upward in countries such as the United States, the production cuts in crude oil by the Saudis helped gasoline prices decrease. The reason this happened is that the Saudi production cuts sent crude oil prices too high, causing what is believed to be potential demand destruction.

Bottom Line

In June, Saudi Arabia and several other OPEC countries, such as Russia, decided to cut oil output production.  Saudi Arabia is the second largest producer of oil behind the United States.  The Saudis reduced their oil production by 1 million barrels per day.

Despite promises to the contrary, the action of Saudi Arabia is primarily regarded as an effort to maintain oil prices in response to concerns about a possible decrease in global demand and the uncertainty surrounding the world economy.

To prevent fluctuations that may affect the economies of both oil-producing and oil-consuming countries, OPEC is a coalition that strives to regulate oil supply and stabilize oil prices on the international market. It is important to note that the OPEC nations play a huge role in decision-making and price swings within the oil market.

OPEC countries generate almost 40% of the world’s crude oil production. Since OPEC accounts for over 60% of all oil traded globally, the impact of its oil shipments on global oil prices is equivalent.

Middle Eastern oil production saw the most significant growth in 2022.  Saudi Arabia saw the largest percentage increase with a rise of 16%, followed by the United Arab Emirates with an increase of 15%, Kuwait with a rise of 8%, and Iran with an increase of 6%.  The United States and Canada also boosted their oil production in North America by 6.5% and 2.6%.

Analysts believe that the average price of a barrel of crude oil will increase by almost 6% in the last quarter of 2023, from $88 in August to $93 in December, according to experts’ short-term forecast. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasted that production cuts will result in higher costs at the pump because crude oil prices are the primary factor determining gasoline pricing. The EIA predicts a 12-cent increase in per-gallon prices between now and the end of the year.

Contrary to popular belief, the impact of the decline in crude oil on gasoline prices was negative.  The Saudis’ reductions in crude oil output prevented the price of gasoline from skyrocketing in nations like the United States.  This occurred due to excessively high crude oil prices brought on by the Saudi production cuts, which are seen to have the ability to destroy demand.

Although Saudi Arabia, along with OPEC nations, has suggested that they will continue to keep their oil production with the schedule outlined and a reduction of 1 million barrels of oil per day, there is no guarantee that the plan will stabilize the prices that Saudi Arabia, in particular, is looking for. Over the next several months, there might be uncertainty on how the reduction of oil affects global economies. The drop in oil output may have the opposite effect, and Saudi Arabia, by reducing the amount of oil, has produced the results that they were looking for.